Credit Suisse is saying that this market is going to be 357% bigger than it originally anticipated as a result of more engagement by consumers, and the so-called pro-sumer. Whatever the case may be, it is all coming up 3D printed roses.
It is a little self-serving of Credit Suisse to tout the very market where it has started coverage of 3D printing stocks but, the word is:
We think eventually there could be near ~100% penetration amongst engineers as it becomes a common element of the engineer’s toolkit…The number of registered architects in the US [now stands at 222,500]. We think this represents another potential growth driver, although we acknowledge the computer design proficiency amongst architects is likely lower than among recent engineering graduates…We think children under 18 will be a primary driver of adoption; they are more likely to have heightened computer proficiency, and technological awareness is high in this age group.
These kinds of reports tend to be long on conjecture and big total available market (TAM) figures based on census like data. Sure, it could happen, and sure, 3D printing is definitely a real hot item, but there has been a lot of expectations in the past that consumers and the so-called pro-sumer will drive big market growth.
Unfortunately, none take into the consideration the fact that, yes, people do get excited by the possibilities of 3D technology, but you have to be skilled and you have to be able to work the tools. In other words, not everyone is a 3D engineer, and after a while, you may get fed up of printing up terrible looking 3D objects.
That was our added note of cynicism on this topic. Buy, buy, buy. Or, sell, sell, sell.